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Man City vs Aston Villa

Sun 23 May 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 37 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Man City win: 60.2%

Draw: 18.3%

Aston Villa win: 21.5%

Predicted: Man City

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 63.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 74.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.15

More corners: Man City (71.6% home / 28.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Man City

Yes

Probability Man City wins or draws: 71.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Man City Clearest lean of the available outcomes (60% vs next-best 22%). (60.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (63.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (75.0% model probability) High

Corners Man City (more corners) (72.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Man City win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.